RESEARCH SEMINARS


Research Colloquium Series by the School of Business and Economics

Performance of machine learning approaches in predicting loan delinquencies: a case study of a microfinance institution in Uzbekistan

Topic: Performance of machine learning approaches in predicting loan delinquencies: a case study of a microfinance institution in Uzbekistan
Presenter: Olmas Isakov
Abstract: Credit risk assessment is essential for financial institutions to protect themselves from losses and maintain financial stability. Machine learning algorithms have been extensively used to analyze borrower data and identify patterns and trends that would be difficult or impossible for humans to detect. By incorporating a wider range of data compared to traditional credit scoring models, modern machine learning can reduce the prediction bias and improve accuracy. Client data from Microfinance Institution in Uzbekistan, composed of 12,882 observations have been used to predict loan delinquency considering various machine learning methods and their performances were evaluated based on accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, negative (npv) and positive predictive value (ppv). While the accuracy level, specificity and npv were among the highest for the logistic regression model, this method underperformed in the sensitivity ratio and positive predictive value. The sensitivity ratio was the highest for k-nearest neighbors (0.57) and the positive predictive value was the highest for Extreme Gradient Boosting (0.56). These findings suggest that implementing hybrid models by including traditional credit scoring models along with modern machine learning can help policymakers and financial professionals reduce credit costs to borrowers and minimize the bias in credit scoring decisions.
Date: 15 May 2024

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